{"id":548918,"date":"2025-11-26T08:30:51","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T03:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=548918"},"modified":"2025-11-25T17:30:42","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T12:00:42","slug":"kaspa-rally-powered-by-leverage-not-users-is-a-kas-pullback-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/kaspa-rally-powered-by-leverage-not-users-is-a-kas-pullback-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Kaspa rally powered by leverage, not users \u2013 Is a KAS pullback ahead?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><strong>Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h3><em>What is driving Kaspa\u2019s recent rally?\u00a0<\/em><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Derivative inflows, with open interest surging 42% in 24 hours, are fueling the momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Does on-chain data support the rally?\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No, declining active addresses and weak UTXO signals suggest caution and potential downside risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p data-start=\"502\" data-end=\"613\">Kaspa [KAS], the layer-1 blockchain token, has been on investors\u2019 watchlists as it records this new capital inflow.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"615\" data-end=\"767\">The momentum, largely driven by derivatives, does not align with several on-chain factors, signaling that a potential decline is increasingly visible.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"769\" data-end=\"809\"><strong data-start=\"769\" data-end=\"807\">Derivative inflows spark the rally<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"811\" data-end=\"922\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/predictions\/kaspa-price-prediction\">Kaspa&#8217;s<\/a>\u00a0derivative market has seen a major surge in inflows, as recorded through open interest over the past day.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"924\" data-end=\"1113\">At press time, Open Interest (OI), which assigns a dollar value to liquidity circulating in the derivatives market, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/currencies\/KAS\/futures\">showed<\/a> that Kaspa&#8217;s $66.92 million valuation represents a 42% increase in just 24 hours.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1115\" data-end=\"1275\">Of the additional $27.9 million added, most were controlled by bullish investors, as reflected in the positive OI Weighted Funding Rate of 0.0035%.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_548933\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-548933\" style=\"width: 2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-548933\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM.png\" alt=\"KAS Open interest weighted funding rate.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"586\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM-300x69.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM-1024x235.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM-768x176.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM-1536x352.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM-2048x469.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-25-at-11.35.52\u202fAM-1200x275.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-548933\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CoinGlass<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p data-start=\"1277\" data-end=\"1414\">A positive weighted average indicates that most circulating funds come from investors opening new contracts in anticipation of a rally.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1416\" data-end=\"1568\">This surge comes with a caution: when a rally is driven by high leverage rather than broader market momentum, prices face the risk of a sharp decline.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1570\" data-end=\"1616\"><strong data-start=\"1570\" data-end=\"1614\">On-chain data doesn\u2019t support KAS<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1618\" data-end=\"1708\">On-chain data, which tracks user interactions with Kaspa, signals caution in the market.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1710\" data-end=\"1893\">The most notable indicator is the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO), which measures cryptocurrency received in a blockchain transaction but not yet spent in subsequent transactions.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1895\" data-end=\"2050\">A positive UTXO reading suggests accumulation, while a negative reading indicates distribution, signaling that investors are unwilling to hold the asset.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_548929\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-548929\" style=\"width: 2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-548929\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1548\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics-1024x619.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics-768x464.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics-1536x929.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics-2048x1238.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/UTXO-Net-Change-Kaspalytics-1200x726.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-548929\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Kaspalytics<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Active addresses have fallen sharply. Kaspalytics reports that unique addresses dropped from 513,110 on the the 11th of November to just 11,770, at press time, a decline of about 97.72%\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This indicates weakening investor confidence in the token\u2019s long-term prospects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At the same time, both account balances and network activity have decreased, showing that investors are cautious and casting doubt on the sustainability of KAS\u2019s recent rally.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2454\" data-end=\"2494\"><strong data-start=\"2454\" data-end=\"2492\">Decline, but consolidation remains<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2496\" data-end=\"2585\">The risk of a decline is also visible in the spot market, as retail investors pull out.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2587\" data-end=\"2662\">Over the last 48 hours, investors sold roughly $1.3 million worth of KAS. However, to assess long-term impact, AMBCrypto analyzed non-zero KAS wallets.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_548930\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-548930\" style=\"width: 2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-548930\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics.png\" alt=\"Address Count Non-Zero Balance - Kaspalytics\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1548\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics-1024x619.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics-768x464.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics-1536x929.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics-2048x1238.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Address-Count-Non-Zero-Balance-Kaspalytics-1200x726.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-548930\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Kaspalytics<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p data-start=\"2745\" data-end=\"2932\">Despite recent sell-offs, non-zero balances have remained largely stable. Kaspalytics reports that 54.84 million addresses continue to hold KAS, maintaining this level since the 1st of November.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2934\" data-end=\"3055\">This stability suggests that even if momentum weakens in upcoming trading sessions, a dramatic drop in KAS is unlikely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s why KAS rally could be short-term. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":548928,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,66,3,4,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-548918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-altcoins-news","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Kaspa rally powered by leverage, not users \u2013 Is a KAS pullback ahead? 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