{"id":523436,"date":"2025-08-31T00:30:54","date_gmt":"2025-08-30T19:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=523436"},"modified":"2025-08-30T19:07:54","modified_gmt":"2025-08-30T13:37:54","slug":"why-bitcoins-pullback-hints-at-100k-danger-despite-macro-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/why-bitcoins-pullback-hints-at-100k-danger-despite-macro-optimism\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Bitcoin’s pullback hints at $100K danger despite macro optimism"},"content":{"rendered":"

Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n

BTC lost $110K and must defend $108K to reinforce the bullish trend. But will it hold ahead of a likely September rate cut?\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

On the 29th August, <\/span>Bitcoin [BTC]<\/span><\/a> cracked the $110K support and retreated lower to $108K, bringing its pullback to 13% from the recent peak of $124K.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The extended drop followed a broader sell-off, seen across U.S. equity markets too, following<\/a> July\u2019s inflation data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, the correction was within the 30% range seen in the past bull markets. But Crypto Twitter was flooded with “market top” calls.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, macro analysts stayed bullish, further complicating BTC\u2019s outlook. So what\u2019s next for Bitcoin after the latest drop?<\/p>\n

Charting the mid-term risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n

One of the cycle’s top callers was Ali Martinez, who <\/span>cited<\/span><\/a>\u00a0RSI divergence on the price charts and a price action that mirrored the 2021 market peak. <\/span><\/p>\n

Failure to hold above $108.7K could set the stage for further decline.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

“The top may be in for Bitcoin, at least temporarily. The bullish case would require two key validations: $108,700 holds as support. A golden cross reappears on the MVRV Momentum indicator.”<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/a>
Source: X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Indeed, AMBCrypto established the scary resemblance of the 2021 cycle peak (white line) to the current traction. <\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, if the correlation remains positive, BTC could retreat and bottom out around $70K.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/a>
Source: BTC\/USDT, TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

On-chain cost basis in focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n

On-chain data also signaled risk if BTC cracked below $108K.<\/p>\n

According to Glassnode <\/span>data<\/span><\/a>, the level was a short-term holder cost basis that could act as support or resistance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the past, a break below triggered distress selling and sustained weakness. Naturally, such a scenario could drag BTC below $100K.<\/p>\n

“History shows that trading below short-term holders\u2019 cost basis (~$108.9k) often precedes multi-month bears. If support breaks, the statistical band points to a mid-term bottom near $93k\u2013$95k.”<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/a>
Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Macro tailwinds still intact?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

On the macro front, the U.S. Treasury borrowing from the public could drain dollar liquidity and strain risk assets in the next few weeks, according to analysts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, the market consensus for a 25 bps interest rate cut in September rate cuts has hit nearly 90%. <\/span><\/p>\n

Swissblock <\/span>analysts<\/span><\/a>, however, argued that the Fed policy rate could impact BTC more than the 2021 correlation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, even JP Morgan <\/span>projected<\/span><\/a> that BTC could hit $126K by the end of the year. <\/span><\/p>\n

Based on the expected Fed rate cuts, Alex Kruger <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> that the cycle was far from over and the run could extend to 2026.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

“Even if we were to go down from here, I feel extremely confident this is not the end of the cycle.”<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Overall, from historical price chart technicals and on-chain data, a near-term risk of distress sell-off was evident if BTC loses $108K. However, the macro landscape was still positive in the mid-term.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin bulls and bears are set for a showdown at the $108K crucial inflection point<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":523449,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-523436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Bitcoin's pullback hints at $100K danger despite macro optimism - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin has dropped to key inflection level at $108K after this week's extended correction. 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