{"id":502875,"date":"2025-06-18T23:30:37","date_gmt":"2025-06-18T18:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=502875"},"modified":"2025-06-18T16:40:29","modified_gmt":"2025-06-18T11:10:29","slug":"bitcoin-this-ratio-hints-at-an-upcoming-btc-supply-shock-how","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-this-ratio-hints-at-an-upcoming-btc-supply-shock-how\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: THIS ratio hints at a possible BTC supply shock &#8211; How?"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Binance volume surged while mid-term holders doubled, signaling rising institutional accumulation.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crowd interest and leverage dropped, highlighting market indecision and weak demand momentum.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/predictions\/bitcoin-price-prediction\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin&#8217;s [BTC]<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> UTXO band has doubled from 6 million to 12 million in June, indicating rising holder conviction despite BTC dropping 1.79% to $104,950, a press time, over the last 24 hours.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This spike shows that more investors are opting to hold through volatility rather than take profits, reducing available supply.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historically, such behavior from mid-term holders\u2014often considered smart money\u2014has preceded strong rallies. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could build a bullish setup based on accumulation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, short-term demand remains fragile, and traders should remain cautious until key confirmation signals return.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_502879\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-502879\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/qKRIAg_eaf3b10372ffef1364b592fcc0af1968ca320e268bf5171b402cb1b07d8d622e.webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-502879 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/qKRIAg_eaf3b10372ffef1364b592fcc0af1968ca320e268bf5171b402cb1b07d8d622e.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/qKRIAg_eaf3b10372ffef1364b592fcc0af1968ca320e268bf5171b402cb1b07d8d622e.webp 1280w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/qKRIAg_eaf3b10372ffef1364b592fcc0af1968ca320e268bf5171b402cb1b07d8d622e-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/qKRIAg_eaf3b10372ffef1364b592fcc0af1968ca320e268bf5171b402cb1b07d8d622e-1024x576.webp 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/qKRIAg_eaf3b10372ffef1364b592fcc0af1968ca320e268bf5171b402cb1b07d8d622e-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/qKRIAg_eaf3b10372ffef1364b592fcc0af1968ca320e268bf5171b402cb1b07d8d622e-1200x675.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-502879\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><b>Why is Binance absorbing most of the spot market activity?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Binance&#8217;s share of Bitcoin spot trading volume has surged from 24% to 53% in just one day\u2014a dramatic shift, pointing to a massive influx of capital.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This spike is likely driven by institutional players reallocating their activity, drawn by Binance&#8217;s deep liquidity and cost-effective trading structure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Such a sudden rise in exchange dominance often signals an impending high-volatility phase, especially if fueled by coordinated accumulation or strategic positioning ahead of major price moves.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, this rapid consolidation of volume highlights growing centralization in crypto trading infrastructure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If sustained, it could have lasting implications for price discovery and market dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_502878\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-502878\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/RlfpO_ff830ca732e2c4705ec2dc380d39fdb27fb9891ee0c8b7978328b68bd51b56e3.webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-502878 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/RlfpO_ff830ca732e2c4705ec2dc380d39fdb27fb9891ee0c8b7978328b68bd51b56e3.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/RlfpO_ff830ca732e2c4705ec2dc380d39fdb27fb9891ee0c8b7978328b68bd51b56e3.webp 1280w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/RlfpO_ff830ca732e2c4705ec2dc380d39fdb27fb9891ee0c8b7978328b68bd51b56e3-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/RlfpO_ff830ca732e2c4705ec2dc380d39fdb27fb9891ee0c8b7978328b68bd51b56e3-1024x576.webp 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/RlfpO_ff830ca732e2c4705ec2dc380d39fdb27fb9891ee0c8b7978328b68bd51b56e3-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/RlfpO_ff830ca732e2c4705ec2dc380d39fdb27fb9891ee0c8b7978328b68bd51b56e3-1200x675.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-502878\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><b>Does a Stock-to-Flow ratio of 580 confirm extreme scarcity for BTC?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At the time of writing, Bitcoin\u2019s Stock-to-Flow (S\/F) ratio surged to 580\u2014a level well above historical averages.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This metric measures the relationship between Bitcoin\u2019s circulating supply and its annual issuance, and such a sharp increase typically points to tightening supply and long-term bullish potential.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the elevated reading may be skewed by factors like reduced miner selling or short-term fluctuations in on-chain activity.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While a high S\/F ratio supports the narrative of a looming supply shock, it\u2019s not a standalone signal for price appreciation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sustained price growth still depends on rising demand and broader market participation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without renewed investor interest and increased activity, elevated S\/F levels alone may fall short of sparking immediate upside momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_502880\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-502880\" style=\"width: 2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-502880 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"867\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025-1024x347.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025-768x260.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025-1536x520.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025-2048x693.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.05.57-18-Jun-2025-1200x406.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-502880\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Santiment<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 data-start=\"316\" data-end=\"387\"><strong>BTC social and derivatives metrics show indecision as conviction stalls<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"389\" data-end=\"1050\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BTC&#8217;s<\/span>\u00a0Social Dominance dropped to 19.88% while Binance Funding Rate hovered at a neutral 0.001%, reflecting fading crowd engagement and trader indecision.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"389\" data-end=\"1050\">This combination suggests a low-conviction environment, where neither bulls nor bears are assertively in control.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"389\" data-end=\"1050\">Historically, falling social interest paired with flat funding has preceded major volatility as markets await catalysts. The lack of extreme sentiment or leverage reduces short-term breakout momentum.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"389\" data-end=\"1050\">Therefore, without a spike in engagement or directional funding, Bitcoin may remain range-bound. If these metrics shift sharply, they could signal the start of Bitcoin\u2019s next big move.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_502895\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-502895\" style=\"width: 2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-502895 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"867\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025-1024x347.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025-768x260.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025-1536x520.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025-2048x693.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-12.52.29-18-Jun-2025-1200x406.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-502895\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Santiment<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 data-start=\"4099\" data-end=\"4172\">Negative DAA Divergence still persists despite recent price stability<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4174\" data-end=\"4843\">The Price-DAA Divergence remained negative, suggesting that address activity has not kept up with recent price movements.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4174\" data-end=\"4843\">This persistent divergence raises concerns about the strength of the current market structure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4174\" data-end=\"4843\">Typically, growing address activity supports sustainable rallies, while divergence often signals speculative or hollow price action.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4174\" data-end=\"4843\">The continued gap implies fewer unique users are transacting on the network, despite price hovering above $100K.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_502882\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-502882\" style=\"width: 2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-502882\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"867\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025-1024x347.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025-768x260.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025-1536x520.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025-2048x693.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-BTC-09.03.21-18-Jun-2025-1200x406.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-502882\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Santiment<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><b>Which force will prevail\u2014conviction or exhaustion?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin\u2019s market is currently caught between opposing forces: strong accumulation by long-term holders and waning interest from the broader crowd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mid-term UTXO growth and Binance\u2019s rising market share point to increasing institutional confidence and long-term conviction.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the flip side, negative divergence in Daily Active Addresses (DAA), muted social sentiment, and neutral funding rates expose weak retail engagement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For BTC to stage a sustainable breakout, alignment between institutional accumulation and retail enthusiasm is essential.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Until that balance emerges, Bitcoin remains at a pivotal point\u2014hovering between the potential for a breakout and the risk of market fatigue.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin shows rising accumulation and supply tightening, but demand-side metrics point to market fragility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":502903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-502875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin: THIS ratio hints at a possible BTC supply shock - How? - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"BTC\u2019s UTXO band has doubled from 6M to 12M in June, indicating rising holder conviction despite BTC dropping 1.79% to $104,950.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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