{"id":493955,"date":"2025-05-23T00:30:48","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T19:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=493955"},"modified":"2025-05-22T15:14:46","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T09:44:46","slug":"bitcoin-hits-all-time-high-without-leverage-surge-is-120k-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-hits-all-time-high-without-leverage-surge-is-120k-next\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin hits all-time high without leverage surge \u2014 Is $120K next?"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BTC tagged a record high of over $111K, but the market was not overheated.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Option traders were pricing a 15% of BTC extending to $120K by the end of May.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin&#8217;s [BTC]<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> run-up to a new ATH of $111.8K extended the crypto asset\u2019s Q2 recovery gains to 48%. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the record rally wasn\u2019t accompanied by massive market leverage, signalling a healthy situation for bullish continuation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But do other indicators tracking an overheated market paint the same picture, and what are the key levels to watch?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Assessing BTC&#8217;s uptrend risks<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the top indicators for gauging market leverage, Funding Rate (FR), was yet to flash overheated warning signals at press time. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The FR for BTC ranged from 3% to 20% in the past three days.\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The indicator is used to tie the price of the BTC perpetual (futures) contract to the spot market value. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>To achieve the correlation, traders pay a fee, the FR, to maintain their position.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In a bullish market, the funding is positive, and bulls (longs) pay short position holders periodically, about every 8 hours. For bearish markets, the opposite applies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_493959\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-493959\" style=\"width: 1885px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-112518.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-493959 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-112518.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin\" width=\"1885\" height=\"835\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-112518.png 1885w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-112518-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-112518-1024x454.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-112518-768x340.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-112518-1536x680.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-112518-1200x532.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1885px) 100vw, 1885px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-493959\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CoinGlass<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, excessive market leverage (taking massive loans) to bet on price is always flagged by a high FR between 50% and 100%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This kind of market froth always happens in bull runs, increasing liquidation risks, a mark of an overheated bull market. The result is a likely cool-off or pullback.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s what happened after the massive BTC run-up above $100K last November and December. BTC&#8217;s FR jumped above 50% and even hit 100% (orange zones).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the contrary, the May pump to $111K was different and marked by a healthy market with low leverage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, from a Funding Rates perspective, the risk of a price reversal due to an overheated market remained low.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another data that supported further uptrend was the True MVRV, a valuation metric. At press time, the metric was valued at 1.7 and has previously flagged local tops in late and early 2024 when it tapped 2.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Assuming history repeats itself, BTC still has a slight <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoins-realized-cap-adds-3b-heres-why-btcs-rally-isnt-over\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">room for growth<\/a> before hitting a local peak around 2 or a cycle peak (if MVRV hits 3).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_493962\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-493962\" style=\"width: 2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-493962\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1440\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1-2048x1152.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/BTC-True-MVRV-1-1200x675.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-493962\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But, how much higher can BTC climb from $111K?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Option traders estimate only a 15% chance of BTC reaching $120K by May\u2019s end. However, contracts targeting $115K and $120K were the most purchased in the last 24 hours.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even calls aiming for $130K by September saw strong bids, signaling significant bullish sentiment for Q2 and Q3. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whether these bets will materialize remains uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_493966\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-493966\" style=\"width: 841px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-115941.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-493966 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-115941.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin\" width=\"841\" height=\"445\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-115941.png 841w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-115941-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-22-115941-768x406.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-493966\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.deribit.com\/statistics\/BTC\/metrics\/options\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Deribit <\/span><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders were betting on BTC hitting $120K and $130K price targets by May or September. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":493970,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[6427],"class_list":["post-493955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view","tag-ambcrypto"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin hits all-time high without leverage surge \u2014 Is $120K next? 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