{"id":476578,"date":"2025-03-20T21:30:51","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T16:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=476578"},"modified":"2025-03-20T18:40:20","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T13:10:20","slug":"bitcoin-how-rising-stablecoin-supply-can-put-btcs-90k-at-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-how-rising-stablecoin-supply-can-put-btcs-90k-at-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: How rising stablecoin supply can put BTC&#8217;s $90K at risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Stablecoin reserves on derivatives exchanges have surged.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Until stablecoin volume flows back into spot trading, volatility is expected to persist.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since November, there has been a significant increase in the supply of stablecoins, coinciding with <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin\u2019s [BTC]<\/a> bullish rally.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, this liquidity has predominantly flowed into derivatives markets rather than spot markets.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This report analyzes the implications of this trend. Is the market overleveraged, and could excessive high-leverage trading put Bitcoin\u2019s short-term price action at risk?<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Leveraged bets lead the way in stablecoin use<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A growing <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/stablecoins\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stablecoin<\/a> supply typically indicates increased buying power. However, its diversion into derivatives suggests traders are favoring leveraged positions over direct BTC accumulation<\/span><b>.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Since November, traders have added around $20 billion in Tether (USDT) to circulation, coinciding with Bitcoin&#8217;s climb to its all-time high of $109k.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_476596\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-476596\" style=\"width: 3200px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-476596 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply.png\" alt=\"Stablecoin USDT supply\" width=\"3200\" height=\"1800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply-2048x1152.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glassnode-studio_usdt-circulating-supply-1200x675.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-476596\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While this surge pointed to heightened USDT liquidity in the market, particularly in BTC buying pressure, <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/67d9f509ca9002313ef8ac17-Stablecoin-Supply-is-Increasing-But-Market-Impact-is-Limited-Derivatives-Markets?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=sns&amp;utm_campaign=quicktake&amp;utm_content=thekriptolik&amp;s=09\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">data<\/a> from CryptoQuant revealed much of this liquidity was funneled into high-risk leveraged trading.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As the derivatives market saw a spike in buy orders, Open Interest (OI) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/currencies\/BTC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">soared<\/a> to an all-time high of $70 billion on the 22nd of January.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, it stands at $52 billion. The closure of these positions has exerted intense downward pressure on BTC&#8217;s price, making it challenging for Bitcoin to reclaim the $90k mark.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Weak spot demand puts Bitcoin\u2019s future at risk<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The USDT <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/asset\/usdt_eth\/chart\/exchange-flows\/exchange-netflow-total?exchange=spot_exchange&amp;window=DAY&amp;sma=0&amp;ema=0&amp;priceScale=log&amp;metricScale=linear&amp;chartStyle=column\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">movement<\/a> on election day shows this shift clearly. On the 6th of November, net outflow of stablecoins from spot exchanges signaled heightened buying activity \u2013 typically a bearish indicator.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the derivatives market saw an explosive inflow of 1.2 billion in USDT, pointing to a rise in leveraged trading.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While such liquidity influxes in derivatives can indicate bullish sentiment in a strong market, they introduce significant risk in a volatile environment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Following the FOMC meeting, which sparked slight optimism for potential rate cuts, Bitcoin&#8217;s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) saw a dramatic increase.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_476619\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-476619\" style=\"width: 4000px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-476619 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1.png\" alt=\"BTC ELR\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1.png 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1-2048x1152.png 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bitcoin-Estimated-Leverage-Ratio-All-Exchanges-1-1200x675.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 4000px) 100vw, 4000px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-476619\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As expectations for lower borrowing costs grew, traders flocked to high-leverage positions. This trend is one to watch closely as Q2 progresses.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given the weak accumulation in the spot market, these leveraged positions face a higher likelihood of liquidation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col flex-grow\">\n<div class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 whitespace-normal break-words text-start [.text-message+&amp;]:mt-5\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"a1e18c53-0c91-45df-b2ea-2f2ec7720ffd\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-4o-mini\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[3px]\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose w-full break-words dark:prose-invert dark\">\n<p data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"168\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">In this environment, stablecoin inflows may continue to dominate the derivatives market. Pushing Bitcoin beyond the $90k threshold could become a significant challenge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Given the current distribution of stablecoins, traders should exercise caution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":113,"featured_media":476584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,66,3,4,5825,20],"tags":[6427],"class_list":["post-476578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-stablecoins","category-trading-view","tag-ambcrypto"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin: How rising stablecoin supply can put BTC&#039;s $90K at risk - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin rally at risk? 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