{"id":456758,"date":"2025-01-04T11:30:36","date_gmt":"2025-01-04T06:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=456758"},"modified":"2025-01-04T12:56:20","modified_gmt":"2025-01-04T07:26:20","slug":"bitcoin-how-global-liquidity-will-affect-btcs-bull-market-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-how-global-liquidity-will-affect-btcs-bull-market-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin &#8211; How global liquidity will affect BTC&#8217;s bull market trend"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Decreasing demand for U.S. Treasury Securities may signal a capital shift toward riskier assets, including Bitcoin.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, Bitcoin\u2019s Social Volume is trending upward, though it remains below levels seen during the 2021 bull market.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Global liquidity has consistently influenced asset prices, including <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin\u2019s [BTC]<\/a>. Through analysis liquidity inflows, represented by M2 (a measure of money supply), align with Bitcoin\u2019s growth, though with a slight delay.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the other hand, while the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy, the declining demand for U.S. Treasury securities (UST) may signal a capital shift toward riskier assets, including Bitcoin.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_456760\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-456760\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-9.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-456760 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-9.png 800w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-9-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-9-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-456760\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This potential shift, coupled with broader global liquidity dynamics, could support Bitcoin\u2019s bull market even in the absence of direct Quantitative Easing (QE).<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Bitcoin\u2019s price movement and Global M2 Liquidity<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin\u2019s price correlates with the Global M2 Day-over-Day (DoD) 30DMA. The most notable instance occurred after the COVID-19 liquidity injection when Bitcoin\u2019s price surged to its all-time high following a rapid M2 increase.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More recently, despite the Federal Reserve\u2019s QT stance, global liquidity has shown a slight uptrend, supporting Bitcoin\u2019s current price recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This recovery aligns with the historical trend of delayed responses to M2 inflows. A bell curve-shaped growth pattern in M2 aligns with Bitcoin\u2019s long-term bullish movements, highlighting how liquidity positively impacts Bitcoin\u2019s price.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the Federal Reserve intervenes due to a potential crisis in T-bills, M2 could rise sharply. Such intervention would likely propel Bitcoin prices upward again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With the current M2 uptick, Bitcoin may retest its previous highs if liquidity sustains, indicating a possible bullish breakout in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Market sentiment and Bitcoin\u2019s potential growth<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Greed &amp; Fear Index reflects market sentiment, significantly influencing Bitcoin&#8217;s price movement. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rally when the index shifts from extreme fear to neutral or greed levels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, this metric indicates cautious optimism, transitioning from the fear-driven lows seen earlier this year to a more neutral sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_456762\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-456762\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-10.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-456762 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-10.png 800w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-10-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-10-768x412.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-456762\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This aligns with the global liquidity chart, where a slight increase in M2 coincided with Bitcoin&#8217;s recent price recovery. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If sentiment continues improving, supported by increasing liquidity and reduced demand for USTs, traders may choose to allocate capital to riskier assets like Bitcoin, driving further price growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Looking ahead, the Greed &amp; Fear Index is likely to strengthen if Bitcoin sustains above key psychological levels. However, any unexpected tightening measures from the Feds or geopolitical uncertainties could trigger fear, dampening the rally.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traders should monitor sentiment closely as it aligns with liquidity trends for timing long positions.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>A metric of market engagement<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Social Volume, which tracks the frequency of Bitcoin mentions across social media platforms, is a leading indicator of market engagement. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During significant liquidity-driven price movements, social activity often spikes, reflecting heightened interest from both retail and institutional investors.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_456764\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-456764\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-12.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-456764 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"271\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-12.png 800w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-12-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-12-768x260.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-456764\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Santiment<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, Bitcoin\u2019s Social Volume is trending upward, though it remains below the levels seen during the 2021 bull market. This suggests growing interest as Bitcoin recovers, but not yet a euphoric market state.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The delayed response in Social Volume corresponds with the slight lag in Bitcoin\u2019s reaction to M2 liquidity inflows, as shown in the chart.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Social Volume rises further, it could signal increased market participation and a strengthening bull trend. However, subdued activity might indicate hesitation among traders, potentially leading to slower price growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monitoring this metric alongside liquidity trends and technical support levels could offer early signals of sustained upward momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Network activity as a bullish indicator<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Higher activity levels align with periods of increased price momentum, as more participants indicate stronger network demand.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recent data shows a steady rise in active addresses, reflecting renewed interest among traders and investors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This coincides with the slight uptick in global M2 liquidity and BTC\u2019s recent price recovery. The pattern supports the hypothesis that liquidity inflows drive market activity, even if delayed.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_456767\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-456767\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-13.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-456767 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-13.png 800w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-13-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-13-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-456767\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If active addresses continue increasing, it signals growing confidence in the network and reinforces a potential bull market. However, a stagnation or decline in activity could suggest hesitation or profit-taking among participants.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BTC\u2019s recent price recovery highlights its sensitivity to global liquidity trends, as depicted by the correlation with 30DMA in the chart.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the Federal Reserve\u2019s ongoing quantitative tightening, the slight uptick in global liquidity, coupled with declining UST demand, has provided a foundation for Bitcoin\u2019s growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Read\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/predictions\/bitcoin-price-prediction\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin\u2019s [BTC] Price Prediction<\/a>\u00a02024-25<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A shift from fear to cautious optimism indicates improving market sentiment, while increasing social engagement reflects growing interest. Additionally, rising active addresses signal strengthening network activity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Looking ahead, the interplay of global liquidity, market sentiment, and network activity will remain pivotal. If systemic risks prompt Federal Reserve intervention, BTC could see an accelerated bull run driven by renewed capital inflows.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> Global liquidity highlights BTC&#8217;s sensitivity to economic shifts, driving potential bullish momentum amidst quantitative tightening and renewed optimism.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":456782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-456758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin - How global liquidity will affect BTC&#039;s bull market trend - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Global liquidity, M2 money supply, market sentiment, and network activity significantly influenced Bitcoin&#039;s price movements.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-how-global-liquidity-will-affect-btcs-bull-market-trend\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin - How global liquidity will affect BTC&#039;s bull market trend - AMBCrypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global liquidity highlights BTC&#039;s sensitivity to economic shifts, driving potential bullish momentum amidst quantitative tightening and renewed optimism.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-how-global-liquidity-will-affect-btcs-bull-market-trend\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AMBCrypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cryptoamb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-01-04T06:00:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-01-04T07:26:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Nath-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Clinton Otieno\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@https:\/\/x.com\/otienoclinton7\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@CryptoAmb\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Clinton Otieno\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"AnalysisNewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ambcrypto.com\\\/bitcoin-how-global-liquidity-will-affect-btcs-bull-market-trend\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ambcrypto.com\\\/bitcoin-how-global-liquidity-will-affect-btcs-bull-market-trend\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Clinton Otieno\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ambcrypto.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3c51a7ada3ce22f2827a181920e1a009\"},\"headline\":\"Bitcoin &#8211; 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