{"id":423993,"date":"2024-09-16T21:30:11","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T16:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=423993"},"modified":"2024-09-16T14:52:31","modified_gmt":"2024-09-16T09:22:31","slug":"23-days-to-a-bitcoin-rally-btc-halving-cycle-has-the-answer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/23-days-to-a-bitcoin-rally-btc-halving-cycle-has-the-answer\/","title":{"rendered":"23 days to a Bitcoin rally? BTC halving cycle has the answer!"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin could start October on a bullish note, supported by a hidden pattern.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The probability leans strongly in favor of this scenario.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a>\u00a0had a bullish weekend, briefly testing the $60K mark before pulling back. At press time, it traded at $58,272, reflecting a momentary retreat after the surge.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With prices retracing, hope hinges on the impending Fed rate cut\u2014but it&#8217;s not the only factor. As BTC enters its 148th day post-halving, a hidden pattern suggests the breakout may be closer than expected.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>History suggests rebound possibility<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The chart highlights a recurring trend in the Bitcoin cycle emerging after each halving season. For context, Bitcoin halving is a deflationary model occurring every four years, reducing the Bitcoin supply by half.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_423994\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-423994\" style=\"width: 1431px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/1-8.jpeg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-423994 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/1-8.jpeg\" alt=\"Bitcoin halving\" width=\"1431\" height=\"730\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/1-8.jpeg 1431w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/1-8-300x153.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/1-8-1024x522.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/1-8-768x392.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/1-8-1200x612.jpeg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1431px) 100vw, 1431px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-423994\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source : X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From an economic standpoint, a reduced supply increases the value of each coin. Consequently, each cycle typically sees an upward trend begin after an average of 170 days.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For instance, following the halving on 11th May, four years ago, BTC first tested the $40K ceiling on the daily price chart approximately 170 days later. A more significant peak pushed BTC above $50K roughly 480 days after, around early August.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A similar pattern has been observed after each halving period. If this trend holds, BTC might reach $70K in the first week of October before facing resistance. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC meeting could further influence this hypothesis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although the historical trend looks promising, reality must be factored in\u2014so, is a potential rebound just 23 days away?<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>LTH reinforced their support for Bitcoin<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seasoned investors are confident in a potential price correction. Historically, a rising LTH SOPR supports each bull rally, indicating long-term holders are realizing profits.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_423995\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-423995\" style=\"width: 1837px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-123135.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-423995 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-123135.png\" alt=\"LTH backs rebound\" width=\"1837\" height=\"971\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-123135.png 1837w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-123135-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-123135-1024x541.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-123135-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-123135-1536x812.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-123135-1200x634.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1837px) 100vw, 1837px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-423995\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source : BGeometrics<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the uptick is a sign of optimism, if the price does not match the rise, it could undermine the expected correction. This may prompt long-term holders to sell at a profit rather than risk losses.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Put simply, long-term holders realizing profits signals strength in Bitcoin\u2019s current market value. If this trend persists, a reversal could be imminent. However, a price retrace below $57K might signal concern.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The LTHs represent a significant portion of investors, but they alone do not fully capture market confidence in an October upward trend.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, analyzing futures traders can provide better insights.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Renewed confidence among Bitcoin future traders<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While shorts have dominated derivatives for a while, longs have recently increased their presence, as shown by the positive funding rate. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historically, a positive funding rate indicates confidence among futures traders, suggesting they expect BTC prices to rise.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_423996\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-423996\" style=\"width: 1828px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-130657.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-423996 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-130657.png\" alt=\"Funding rate\" width=\"1828\" height=\"967\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-130657.png 1828w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-130657-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-130657-1024x542.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-130657-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-130657-1536x813.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-130657-1200x635.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1828px) 100vw, 1828px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-423996\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source : BGeometrics<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Moreover, this aligns with AMBCrypto\u2019s earlier projections, which noted that a positive sentiment often precedes BTC testing crucial price ranges.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Though appreciated, a more consistently positive funding rate could improve the chances of a Bitcoin rebound in the next two weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Surprisingly, despite renewed dominance, BTC fell below $60K, suggesting potential <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/lookonchain\/status\/1835525339411554806\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">third-party<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> involvement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While this indicates a slight divergence, other factors may neutralize its long-term impact. The question remains: Will the downtrend hold?<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>What now?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The chart below shows the MVRV-Z score approaching the green box, a zone that historically signals undervaluation. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has typically resulted in outsized returns, with BTC prices rallying afterward.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_423997\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-423997\" style=\"width: 1836px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-133202.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-423997 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-133202.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin MVRV\" width=\"1836\" height=\"975\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-133202.png 1836w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-133202-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-133202-1024x544.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-133202-768x408.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-133202-1536x816.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-133202-1200x637.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1836px) 100vw, 1836px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-423997\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source : Bitcoin Magazine Pro<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, if the halving trend holds true, the current MVRV mirrors the mid-September value from four years ago\u2014just before the Z-score entered the pink box, which signals the market cycle top. The above mentioned charts support this scenario.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Read\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/predictions\/bitcoin-price-prediction\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction<\/a>\u00a02024-25<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to AMBCrypto, October could start with Bitcoin testing the market top around $70K, provided recent profit-takers refrain from selling, LTH continues to hold, and longs maintain dominance in the perpetual market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If this plays out, the halving effect hypothesis would be confirmed as &#8220;true.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin is poised for a potential bullish breakout in October, with a hidden pattern hinting at upward momentum. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":113,"featured_media":423998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[6427,6425],"class_list":["post-423993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view","tag-ambcrypto","tag-featured"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>23 days to a Bitcoin rally? 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